Gustav is headed for S. Louisiana!

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by cajun angel, Aug 31, 2008.

  1. My sister and brother in law live in Baton Rouge, my best friends live in New Orleans. Don't mind tellin ya'll, I'm nervous! Please keep my home state in your thoughts and prayers! They even have concerns about the new levee standing the pressure. I'll be up for volunteering if our church opens its' doors like it did during Katrina.

    For all my "home-folks" Ya'll take care, if you need a place to go, pm me!
     
  2. Leigh

    Leigh

    Feb 19, 2005
    Alabama
    Diane,

    I will keep all those in Gustav's path in my thoughts.

    Are your friends and family evacuating? Or are they staying put?
     
  3. I just called my friend in Lafayette and he's going to leave for Houston later today. It's scary.

    My thoughts are with everyone who will be affected.
     
  4. it isn't good news
    but... fortunately.... it appears that more damage to the storm was done over Cuba....
    so that the entry wind speeds at land fall will be closer to 125 mph, instead of the 150+ predicted just 24 hours ago. it is a much SMALLER storm than Katrina, if you want something positive to say about it. a new "discussion" at www.nhc.noaa.gov will be out in 15 minutes:

    here's the info from the previous one:

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 310857
    TCDAT2
    HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
    500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

    APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL
    ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
    HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM
    FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM
    CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING
    TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS
    ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN
    DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV
    MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING
    IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE
    RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24
    HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
    WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW
    SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE
    SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
    FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV
    AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

    BASED UPON AIRCRAFT DATA AND RADAR FIXES FROM KEY WEST...GUSTAV IS
    MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
    320/14. THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
    WELL-DEFINED...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
    SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE
    HURRICANE. A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED AS GUSTAV
    NEARS THE COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMING UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
    GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW
    SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
    HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THE OFFICIAL
    FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS
    ON THE EXACT TRACK OF GUSTAV AS THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND
    SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
     
  5. Best wishes to all of you in the storms path. I hope that you will all be safe and will take whatever action you deem necessary to make it so. My thoughts and prayers are with you.
     
  6. here is the 1100 EDT update..... 1000 CDT:

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 311457
    TCDAT2
    HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
    1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

    GUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
    THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
    COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
    WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
    NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
    A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
    962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
    SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
    MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
    PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
    MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
    GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
    GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
    SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
    FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
    THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
    TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
    BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
    THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
    SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
    MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
    AFTER 72 HR.

    AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
    FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
    UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
    SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
    LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
    LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
    AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
    VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
    ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
    NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
    BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
    BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
    HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
    OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
    WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
    MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
    GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.
     
  7. it looks like the Gustav is UNexpectedly WEAKING....
    thank God for that

    still a huge issue for the area... but, less so than was generally thought, just 24 hours ago.

    my thoughts and prayers are with all those who have been, are, and will be affected by this storm
     
  8. gladjo

    gladjo Guest

    I lived in Florida in 2004 and had three of em go over the top of us. We hope for the best for you all down there.
     
  9. JDann24

    JDann24

    663
    Dec 15, 2007
    Garland, Texas
    I hope everybody gets out in time and the same mistakes aren't made that were made during Katrina. I'm glad to hear that storm has weakened a bit.
     
  10. I lived in south Louisian for a period of time in the 1970's, to include New Orleans. Places that have left indelible memories for me are now in the path of this storm: Morgan City, Raceland, Golden Meadow, Grand Isle, Franklin, Thibodaux, Houma, La Place, Lutcher, Slidell, Algiers, Chalmette, Pilottown... the list goes on and on; Yes, life will return to these places, as the human spirit can be indomitabler, but life will never be the same for those directly affected. We from afar can safely watch this disaster unfolding with a sense of dread, but our dread pales in comparison to the dread being experienced by those in harms way. Our thoughts and prayers are with you.
     
  11. Unless something has changed, my sister has no plans to leave her house. Can't help but worry! I called her and also my friends in N.O. and the friends in New ORleans I hope have left.
     
  12. dyazdani

    dyazdani Guest

    I live on the south end of Baton Rouge now (just moved into our house a week ago today). We're staying, but are taking the suggested precautions - water, flashlights, non-perishable foods, baby items, etc. I don't expect any major issues up here, hopefully Gustav will not pick up strength.

    I'll keep everyone posted while I can...
     
  13. eng45ine

    eng45ine

    May 11, 2005
    Chicago, IL
    My good friend Paul is a meteorology professor, this was his latest e-mail to me:

    Hi Frank,


    Looks like Gustav is starting to reform an eye. Earlier, Jeck Beven
    indicated that the "eye-like" feature was not where the central of the
    circulation was. That feature has rotated around into the center where in
    the last hour strong onvection has bloomed to the north of the
    circulation.

    It appears that some significant strengthening may be going on...we will
    soon see as the IR and WV satellite imagery show the effects of said
    convection. I am thinking it will strengthen a bit before hitting land...

    Remaing intensity concerns seem to be eye wall regeneration cycles, the
    cooler OHC near the LA coast and the effect of present shear. I see no
    reason it could not hit as a Cat 4 storm, which would make it stronger in
    terms of winds than Katrina. The storm surge shouold not be record setting
    however as Katrina was much stronger as it went over the loop current than
    Gustav is now.

    As least that is how it looks from my chair. Hope retirement is treating you well.

    Paul
     
  14. gladjo

    gladjo Guest

    Just heard on the news that it might not strenghen anymore before it hits. Cat 3 is still mean though. :frown:
     
  15. the latest..... from a few minutes ago:

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 312052
    TCDAT2
    HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
    500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

    VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS
    THAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A HINT OF
    AN EYE RETURNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY
    AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB. ON THE
    OTHER HAND...THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE
    THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT. ALSO...THE CONVECTION...WHILE
    VIGOROUS...IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE
    THAT IS OPEN TO THE SE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16
    KT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
    THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A
    MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
    GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
    GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN
    AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE
    LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
    LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN
    EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE
    NECESSARY LATER. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
    BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
    THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR
    TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE
    SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY
    WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.

    ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
    GUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WITH A LOT OF
    MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST
    OF THE CYCLONE. THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER
    OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
    CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
    THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE
    THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE
    FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
    CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH GUSTAV
    MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
    LANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.
     
  16. dyazdani

    dyazdani Guest

    It's starting to rain now and tornado warnings issued. Wind isn't bad yet, but soon...
     
  17. take care of yourself and your family
    it's heading right for you
    a bit weaker than previously thought...
    the eye still isn't re-organizing
    all "relatively" GOOD news for you and yours

    be more safe than brave..... PLEASE
     
  18. Hope everyone in the path of Gustav has evacuated, and hope your family and friends are safe Dianne. Be assured many resources are headed that way, and it will be far different than with Katrina.

    My son, a Federal officer, left for Mississippi Saturday.
    He and his special unit were at Katrina before the winds quit blowing.

    They are marshaling their team at the edge of the predicted storm area. Other family members, with the local power companies, are packed and ready to go. It is amazing how may peoples lives a storm like this touches.

    I hope all the evacuees and the relief forces get home safely
     
  19. icetraxx

    icetraxx

    241
    May 7, 2005
    Louisiana
    I live just to the east of Baton Rouge. We got hammered by a small cell that knocked out power to part of a nearby town. I got a generator and 25gal of gas, plenty of food, and water. I think we will be fine. I had my roof replaced after Katrina, on a 5lyd house, because it was put on wrong and was literally falling off. I sure am glad that I made that decision. Otherwise I'd be putting blue tarps up in the middle of the hurricane.

    I had to drive into Baton Rouge at 6pm to shut down the network for my office. Traffic was minimal and pretty much everything was closed. I started home at 8pm and the wind and rain started really picking up. At least this one is going to strike land during the day instead of 1-3am like Katrina.

    If there is anyone on the board that needs some help in the baton rouge, denham springs, walker area let me know and I'll see what I can do.

    Larry