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Looks like Ike is on its way to TEXAS.... be careful

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by spalding12, Sep 6, 2008.

  1. [​IMG]


    WTNT44 KNHC 070248
    TCDAT4
    HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
    1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

    AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
    WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
    A FEW HOURS AGO. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
    THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
    EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS. THE
    ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
    TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
    ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
    COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
    SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
    THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
    AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR. ONCE IKE
    MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
    REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
    FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
    HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE
    A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

    IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
    WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
    STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
    GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
    SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
    CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
    DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
    IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
    WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
    HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
    WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
    OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
    MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
    THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.




    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 07/0300Z 21.2N 70.9W 115 KT
    12HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W 120 KT
    24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.5W 125 KT
    36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 78.0W 95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
    48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.7N 80.0W 80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
    72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT...OVER WATER
    96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 95 KT
    120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
     
  2. The eye on it right now is huge.
     
  3. Cope

    Cope

    Apr 5, 2007
    Houston, Texas
    Last night it was aimed at the general area of NOLA. At this rate, it will do a 180° turn before making landfall.

    With landfall on the Gulf Coast 6-7 days away, it's a little premature to get overly concerned yet.
     
  4. unfortunately for the people of cuba..... but fortunate for those in the US, the storm will spend more than a whole day over land
    here is the latest MAX WIND estimates over the next few days, as of 0500 EDT today:

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 07/0900Z 21.1N 72.2W 115 KT
    12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 74.2W 120 KT
    24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.6W 125 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.8N 79.0W 85 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 81.1W 65 KT...INLAND
    72HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 84.5W 80 KT
    96HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 95 KT
    120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 100 KT
     
  5. Cleo68

    Cleo68

    Jul 7, 2008
    Bedford, MA
  6. that is a very cool flash site, cleo
    nice of you to add the link here

    thank you
     
  7. When it hits the warm water in the GOM it will explode unless some outside force acts upon it. As it bears down on its target in the next few days I urge everyone in its path to move aside. This is the kind of storm that could do massive damage. It potentially has a long haul through the Gulf which will only help it to intensify. It would not suprise me to see this thing as a Cat 4-5 by landfall. Please be safe everyone.
    Tim
     
  8. Zee71

    Zee71

    Apr 1, 2007
    Queens, NY
    I wonder if it does take aim for New Orleans, will the folks heed any mandatory evacuations, or will they drop their guard down........it could be an ugly scenario!!!!!
     
  9. I was wondering the same thing. I know if I had to evacuate and then return and then told to evacuate again that would be tough thing to do, even though we know that is the right thing to do.
     
  10. If I was in NO I would evacuate, but being in Central FL on high ground I might stick it out, although I did move my family when Charlie came through. Went down to Okeechobee with friends, had a couple of brews ate dinner and came home. No power for a week. Was not fun. The guys from Florida Power were heros in my eyes, to get it back up and running as fast as they did.
    Tim
     
  11. the new path is out....

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  12. at this rate, it might even hit mexico and miss texas altogether

    models.gif
    Subscribe to see EXIF info for this image (if available)
     
  13. and....
    the words behind the pictures:

    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 071431
    TCDAT4
    HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
    1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
    LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY
    SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115
    KT. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD
    BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL. HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
    CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT
    TO ANTICIPATE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN
    INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA
    TONIGHT. ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
    WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE
    LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
    HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
    DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
    MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
    SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE WATERS OVER
    THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH...
    RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

    IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
    ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
    INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
    WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS
    THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
    THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE
    RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
    MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
    CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
    ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
    WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
    TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
    THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
    AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

    SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
    G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
    WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
    DYNAMICAL MODELS.



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT
    12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT
    24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT...INLAND
    72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT
    96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT
    120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT
     
  14. you can see what a BITE unfotunate CUBA will take out of THIS STORM
    look at the MAX WIND SPEED dropping so significantly

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT
    12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT
    24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT...INLAND

    72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT
    96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT
    120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT
     
  15. I would not want to be in Cuba, that is for sure.
     
  16. Looks like there is still not a consensus and plots diverge in middle of the gulf. After it passes Cuba I bet they will start to all line up. We need rain in Central Texas but not sure I am willing to have my roof blow off to get some rain. At least I live on high ground and no danger of flooding but the winds would not be good. I am sure the entire gulf states are watching closely.
     
  17. RadarPing

    RadarPing

    107
    Feb 14, 2007
    Conroe, Texas
    Here is the interactive tracker that I use. http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008
    Since things change so much I really don't give much much thought to the models until its about 2-3 days out.

    The National Hurricane Center says on their website that they deliberately don't put up a graphic "Such graphics have the potential to confuse users and to undermine the effectiveness of NHC official tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings" http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

    Since living in Houston I feel fortunate that we have dodged the bullet many times.
     
  18. two slow

    two slow

    894
    Apr 22, 2006
    Talladega, Al
    This is not needed so soon after the last one. I was hoping it would have gone up the east coast this time. I don't want to see it hit anywhere but some of us have had more than our share of these lately.
     
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