Nikon had a terrible sales quarter and is revising forward estimates.

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I posted somewhere that Nikon was going to be reporting tough sales after they had a huge sale prices on the Z series. It came to pass. They are going to restructure the imaging division as the sales fell so hard. Sony‘s sales were down 3.5 percent so the market is shrinking and I worry nikon may not survive this shakeout. think typewriters to printers change. There is not enough sales for three companies if the trend continues. Nikon was late to mirrorless and failed on their first attempt.
https://fstoppers.com/news/nikon-just-released-some-terrible-financial-results-427040
 
Many of us were fortunate enough to participate in what I now think of as "the golden age of DSLR photography," but unfortunately digital photography has moved beyond it and now the consumer is faced with choices: DSLR, mirrorless, m 4/3, etc., etc...... AND to add insult to injury to the photographic industry the rise of digital cameras incorporated into "smart phones" also is showing a serious impact. The P&S camera market has already pretty much disappeared. Who needs to buy a P&S camera when they've got their smartphone right in their pocket? Some people have found that, OK, the smartphone can only do so much and they want to explore more, but all too often they aren't looking at DSLRs, they are more interested in something smaller and lighter in weight as well as perhaps something less expensive, both in terms of camera body and the lenses. There are options from which to choose in both mirrorless and m 4/3.....

Also, ahem, many of us who have been using DSLRs and who continue to do so are in the percentage of the population which is older in age and which has more disposable income to use for hobbies, as well as more time to do so. That said, many of us, too, are seeing the appeal in smaller, lighter camera bodies and lenses or even just smartphones and tablets and are making changes in our own camera and lens collections as well as our usage patterns..... Some of us, as Wade has so amply demonstrated recently, are quite skilled in photography in general and those skills have translated quite nicely to his recent Octoberfest experiments using just an iPad for the entire month. Now, of course Wade isn't throwing away his DSLR and lenses in favor of the iPad but again it points up how far technology has come and how sometimes it's just darned convenient to use the device which is closest at hand and how surprisingly good such images shot with it can turn out.

We've already seen on here that several members have moved into using mirrorless cameras and finding advantages there which aren't always available in a DSLR. As technology continues to move forward there will be even more interesting and intriguing options in camera bodies and lenses. I think that by coming late to the mirrorless game in particular, both Canon and Nikon have done themselves and their long-time users a disservice, and unfortunately, yes, this is going to show in the bottom line of their financials. The customer base is shifting, both among those who have been buying their products for years plus the younger demographic who is more attracted to other options and who in some cases have already found that they're happier with a brand which already has what they want and need.

Unfortunately John is most probably right that there is not room for three major camera manufacturers in the current digital camera photography market. That's a harsh reality that Nikon should have been beginning to realize several years ago......
 
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I posted somewhere that Nikon was going to be reporting tough sales after they had a huge sale prices on the Z series. It came to pass. They are going to restructure the imaging division as the sales fell so hard. Sony‘s sales were down 3.5 percent so the market is shrinking and I worry nikon may not survive this shakeout. think typewriters to printers change. There is not enough sales for three companies if the trend continues. Nikon was late to mirrorless and failed on their first attempt.
You really seem to think this, yet blatantly ignore the periodic sales run by other camera companies like Sony, Fuji, Olympus, etc.

Correlation does not imply causation. Every clothing store that has a sale, does that mean that their sales are down? When a car manufacturer runs a cash-back offer, does that mean the car company is in trouble?

Sales have been declining for quite some time now for all manufacturers, so this news is nothing new to anyone that's been paying attention to the industry.

There is not enough sales for three companies if the trend continues. Nikon was late to mirrorless and failed on their first attempt.
What about companies like Olympus, Panasonic, Pentax, Leica, etc.? Those companies all have a vastly smaller market share than Nikon.

Also, please explain to me how Nikon managed to fail with their mirrorless cameras. Was it by implementing IBIS? Using some of the best performing sensors and EVFs on the market? Introducing world-class video performance? I'm genuinely curious to know how the Z6 and Z7 are failures, and what you think Nikon could do to improve on them?
 
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You really seem to think this, yet blatantly ignore the periodic sales run by other camera companies like Sony, Fuji, Olympus, etc.

Correlation does not imply causation. Every clothing store that has a sale, does that mean that their sales are down? When a car manufacturer runs a cash-back offer, does that mean the car company is in trouble?

Sales have been declining for quite some time now for all manufacturers, so this news is nothing new to anyone that's been paying attention to the industry.


What about companies like Olympus, Panasonic, Pentax, Leica, etc.? Those companies all have a vastly smaller market share than Nikon.

Also, please explain to me how Nikon managed to fail with their mirrorless cameras. Was it by implementing IBIS? Using some of the best performing sensors and EVFs on the market? Introducing world-class video performance? I'm genuinely curious to know how the Z6 and Z7 are failures, and what you think Nikon could do to improve on them?
I think that John was referring to the J1 and V1 mirrorless cameras that Nikon introduced in 2011. As I recall they had tiny sensors and were a sales flop. I hope that Nikon hangs on but I suspect that as cell phone cameras continue to improve, ILC's are going to become much more of a nich industry that generates products for professional photographers and serious amateurs.
 
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We probably (?) will not soon see smartphones replace ILC cameras in the hands of professionals at major sporting events, weddings, or portrait sessions. Canikony should be competing for these users in their long term strategy. None have reached the full potential at the moment. IMO, in the mirrorless world, Sony is mature in camera features and has come along nicely in optics, but their ergonomics are not as good as Canikon. Canon has made a strong play to the pros in their mirrorless optics, but lack IBIS in their camera bodies. Nikon has put forth a decent middle of the road blend of very good optics and decent features, but is not outstanding in any single way with their mirrorless offerings. The manufacturer that distinguishes itself from the pack will thrive. Whoever is second best will survive. The third will be hanging on for dear life. I've been shooting Nikon for a long time, but if Sony makes a weatherproof camera that is as dependable as a Canikon and feels good in the hand, it would be pretty easy to switch. And the 2020 Olympics are in Tokyo, with nobody wanting the Bronze.
 
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[/QUOTE]
There is not enough sales for three companies if the trend continues.
Unfortunately John is most probably right that there is not room for three major camera manufacturers in the current digital camera photography market.
Over what period of time do each of you see the market becoming too small for three major players? Three years? Five years? 10 or 20 years? I ask because without the context of a time frame, your concerns aren't addressable.
 
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Over what period of time do each of you see the market becoming too small for three major players? Three years? Five years? 10 or 20 years? I ask because without the context of a time frame, your concerns aren't addressable.
This is a valid point Mike. Nikon had said that sales were a fifth what they were at their peak back in 2012. With an 80% slide in sales, we have to wonder how much further they could reasonably fall.
 
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After a year of trying to love mirrorless (Fuji XPro-2) I have come to the conclusion that I have much better efficiency and control of the image if I use my DSLRs. But I don't see any need for any more bodies (D800, D500, D3) or any more glass. I just don't buy much photo gear anymore. Ironically I can afford it more now than when I was buying it. :ROFLMAO:
 
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Over the last 6months I have built a very nice sony mirrorless system, after shooting nikon for 40 years. My reasons for the change include weight, I cannot hike with my 40lb+ pack anymore. Some was about focus, I have had some eye issues and confirming focus is easier on the sony system, at least for me. I do not like lens adapters, and sony has a fairly mature mirrorless lens line. No it does not feel as good in the hand as my old nikon dslr. Setup is different, but it is still a camera and manual mode works well on anything. I have been very pleased with the new system. It does many things better. Eye tracking is spot on. Silent shutter when needed. A rear screen that actually works. BUT, it is not ready for prime time yet for birds in flight or sports. At least in my hands random unpredictable motion is a major weakness. My d4 or d850 win hands down. So now I have both. I wish nikon had a mature mirrorless system NOW, with a lens collection that filled my need. They did not, so they lost a customer- or at least part of one. I suspect they will have a mature system in a few years- but I chose not to wait. Just an example of what may prove to be poor management. Like Kodak, they may be too late. I hope I am wrong.
Gary
 

JLH

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After a year of trying to love mirrorless (Fuji XPro-2) I have come to the conclusion that I have much better efficiency and control of the image if I use my DSLRs. But I don't see any need for any more bodies (D800, D500, D3) or any more glass. I just don't buy much photo gear anymore. Ironically I can afford it more now than when I was buying it. :ROFLMAO:
I am in exactly the same place. I have D5200, D7100, D7200, D500 and a D750. I have lens coverage from 10mm to 650mm with lots in between. I don't shoot video. I think mirrorless looks fun but for what I do wild life) it just doesn't seem the right choice at this time. I have seen some great work done with the "Z's" but just don't see them as the best choice for what I do. Maybe someday...maybe. Meanwhile I am camera poor as they say so I don't see a new D850 or any such thing ahead for myself.
 
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I wish nikon had a mature mirrorless system NOW, with a lens collection that filled my need.
Amen.
Like Kodak, they may be too late. I hope I am wrong.
Amen again. For now, the Z6/Z7/Z50 is a pretty good start. The big question is this: will Nikon be willing to weather the losses long enough to build a mature mirrorless system that equals and exceeds their current pro level DSLR system? To your point, it's not just about mirrorless cameras as good as the D5/D850/D500, but native lenses as well. I hope so, but it will take their best effort.
 
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Also a Nikon and Sony shooter here. I tend to prefer Nikon for cheaper telephoto lenses, action photography and event work. Sony for portraiture, travel and adapting manual glass. Sony glass over 200mm is way too expensive and after buying an A9 plus their telephoto lenses, I'd be several thousand $$$ in the hole! It's literally cheaper to run two systems optimized to their strengths. I'd probably be shooting a Z body, but Sony is better for manual glass and Samyang has made some amazing E-mount AF glass that's quite affordable.

Saying all that, I don't think Nikon is going anywhere. Honestly I think they're making all the right steps so far. By next year they'll have more Z glass available and hopefully the Z mount gets backwards engineered so more third party lens manufacturers get onboard!
 
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I analyze companies for a living and this trend and sector of the market is going to have consolidation. I read that Olympus might be pulling back on cameras as well. This is going to get ugly if the market has a another 20 percent drop in sales. Canon on their earning report indicated the market will be shrinking by 40 percent over the next couple years. The good thing is that Nikon has realized they need to shake up their camera division or it is not going to survive. That is good and hopefully they can put out a camera that will keep people and attract people to the brand. Right now it is going Sony not nikon's way. Sony was only down 3.5% in sales. It is a much bigger company too. This is going to get interesting and I know we all have vested interests in nikon succeeding and I hope they do.
 
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I posted somewhere that Nikon was going to be reporting tough sales after they had a huge sale prices on the Z series. It came to pass. They are going to restructure the imaging division as the sales fell so hard. Sony‘s sales were down 3.5 percent so the market is shrinking and I worry nikon may not survive this shakeout. think typewriters to printers change. There is not enough sales for three companies if the trend continues. Nikon was late to mirrorless and failed on their first attempt.
https://fstoppers.com/news/nikon-just-released-some-terrible-financial-results-427040
More than three companies are duking it out. I think Sony, Nikon, Canon, Olympus, Fujifilm, Panasonic Lumix, Leica all are in the same market vying for the same buyers. My fear is Nikon waited too long to enter the mirrorless fray, regardless of how impressive the system they created.
 
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More than three companies are duking it out. I think Sony, Nikon, Canon, Olympus, Fujifilm, Panasonic Lumix, Leica all are in the same market vying for the same buyers. My fear is Nikon waited too long to enter the mirrorless fray, regardless of how impressive the system they created.
You are correct but the big three account for most of the sales. So it is is one of them that will not be able to cover overhead and continued R&D and will fall behind. Nikon has no other business to help them stay afloat and to amortize expenses and resources over. They were late and they missed the mark so they are going to have to come up with a winner really soon or they will have even worse numbers for sales.
 
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Nikon has no other business to help them stay afloat and to amortize expenses and resources over. They were late and they missed the mark so they are going to have to come up with a winner really soon or they will have even worse numbers for sales.
Sometimes it is the two minute warning that brings out the full potential of a team. Let's hope Nikon's best effort will come soon enough to stick around for overtime. Waiting for the next season is probably not an option.
 
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I hope I am wrong but I think over the next 4-5 years the carnage will be greater than anyone is predicting. There is room for, at most, two makers of purpose-built ILC's. The market for these devices is small and shrinking. It is also an old demographic with few younger customers entering the market. Of the three big dogs, Nikon is the most vulnerable given their one-trick-pony product line.
 
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You are correct but the big three account for most of the sales. So it is is one of them that will not be able to cover overhead and continued R&D and will fall behind. Nikon has no other business to help them stay afloat and to amortize expenses and resources over. They were late and they missed the mark so they are going to have to come up with a winner really soon or they will have even worse numbers for sales.
Nikon does have other revenue streams albeit not as diverse Canon.

https://www.nikon.com/network/
 
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