Nikon had a terrible sales quarter and is revising forward estimates.

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I read that Olympus might be pulling back on cameras as well.
PetaPixel's take on that: https://petapixel.com/2019/11/12/rumor-claims-olympus-will-shut-down-its-camera-division-within-a-year/

This is going to get ugly if the market has a another 20 percent drop in sales. Canon on their earning report indicated the market will be shrinking by 40 percent over the next couple years.
Canon predicted a year ago that the market would drop 50% over 2019 and 2020. They also said the market would then bottom out. If Canon is now saying the next two years is going to produce another 40% reduction, their prediction that the market would bottom out in 2020 has been hugely revised to the downside.
https://petapixel.com/2019/01/28/canon-sees-the-digital-camera-market-plunging-by-50-in-next-two-years/

Sony was only down 3.5% in sales.
Total company sales or digital camera sales?
 
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Read the first sentence of the OP to understand the reference of my post regarding the Canon sale.
Um, I think we are agreeing on this point. My larger point in referencing required SEC filings is that everything depends on the bottom line. No one can predict which ILC makers will survive. What we can predict is that many will be getting out of the business and probably sooner than most of us might have imagined.
 
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Um, I think we are agreeing on this point. My larger point in referencing required SEC filings is that everything depends on the bottom line. No one can predict which ILC makers will survive. What we can predict is that many will be getting out of the business and probably sooner than most of us might have imagined.
You are correct and the weak sister of the big three is Nikon. The Japanese have been propping companies up for decades with their groups but that has ended and now we are seeing the decline of the camera as the smart phone rises up I just got an iPhone 11 pro max and wow the camera is great. In good light it will rival what I can shoot while not as good most social media sized pictures will not be affected and the rise of the smart phone has made good enough ok as people post out of focus and terrible shots.

I said in the early 2000s that some motorhome manufactures were in trouble and the forums roundly said I was incorrect. It was easy to see and sadly I was correct. I see the same setup here in the camera companies. They will still exist but they will be much smaller and more for people who are serious hobbyists or professionals again.
 
I agree -- well, actually it is already obvious -- that all three of the "Big Three" are experiencing difficulties with their bottom line when it comes to financials, and that those corporations which have not sufficiently diversified out into other areas will be the ones which are most affected first. Obviously other elements come into play as well, but as corporations they have to look at not only individual sources of income but the overall sources of income. An important aspect of their current and potential consumer market, yes, is those who are alive and kicking and who are able and willing to pay for whatever goodies are on offering..... However.....those loyal users from the past may not be able to participate any further, if they are experiencing health or budget problems or if they for whatever other reason have lost interest in photography. They are not going to be lining up and putting their names on a preorder list for the Next Big Thing coming from Nikon or any other company. Then there are the young people who are quite happy with their cell phone images and see no need to move to another type of camera. In-between you have the people who are watching all of this and thinking, "well, I'll wait just a little longer to see what happens before I make a move to buy a new camera and lens(es)".......
 
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I agree -- well, actually it is already obvious -- that all three of the "Big Three" are experiencing difficulties with their bottom line when it comes to financials, and that those corporations which have not sufficiently diversified out into other areas will be the ones which are most affected first. Obviously other elements come into play as well, but as corporations they have to look at not only individual sources of income but the overall sources of income. An important aspect of their current and potential consumer market, yes, is those who are alive and kicking and who are able and willing to pay for whatever goodies are on offering..... However.....those loyal users from the past may not be able to participate any further, if they are experiencing health or budget problems or if they for whatever other reason have lost interest in photography. They are not going to be lining up and putting their names on a preorder list for the Next Big Thing coming from Nikon or any other company. Then there are the young people who are quite happy with their cell phone images and see no need to move to another type of camera. In-between you have the people who are watching all of this and thinking, "well, I'll wait just y a little longer to see what happens before I make a move to buy a new camera and lens(es)".......
Yup. We are on the way out and may not be able or willing to stay on the new gear treadmill. Some years back I gave my son my D300 with a handful of good lenses. He has never used them. I gave my DIL a D3100 and a couple of lenses. She has never used them. Both frequently post photos and videos taken with their phones. I suspect that by the time my grandchildren become interested in capturing their own images, there will be no dedicated cameras save very expensive tools for pros and the prosumer hobbyists.
 
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Then there are the young people who are quite happy with their cell phone images and see no need to move to another type of camera.
Some years back I gave my son my D300 with a handful of good lenses. He has never used them. I gave my DIL a D3100 and a couple of lenses. She has never used them.
We discussed in another thread (though I don't remember which one) that the mirrorless cameras are being bought by people who are replacing their DSLRs with them. Unlike the DSLR that brought hundreds of millions of people into the photography market, the mirrorless camera isn't doing that (and won't). Connie's and Doug's posts are anecdotal evidence of that.
 
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We discussed in another thread (though I don't remember which one) that the mirrorless cameras are being bought by people who are replacing their DSLRs with them. Unlike the DSLR that brought hundreds of millions of people into the photography market, the mirrorless camera isn't doing that (and won't). Connie's and Doug's posts are anecdotal evidence of that.
I gave my girlfriend* (who is into handmade aesthetic and fine art) a couple DSLRs (a D100 in 2003, and a D700 in 2014) She took a couple pics at events, but complained that there was too much stuff to setup and pay attention to, and reverted to using her Fuji X10 in 2005 and then iPhone more recently to take pictures with. I could not disagree. Yet I persist in using DSLR and other specialty cameras (which, admittedly includes an iPhone) to make my own pictures.

Why? Phone pics end up on the internet, and the phone is already connected to the internet. It's the path of least resistance. For photography that ends up on walls, something more powerful, such as a DSLR is needed to make the picture - sensor size, lens aperture and focal length, RAM, ISO, the power of the image processing software, and the physical printer are all important and the skills of the photographer/printmaker are paramount.

These technologies and skills are expensive and difficult to master. As photographers we can appreciate the added value, but to viewers, are they that important? Isn't a popular Instagram thread worth a well made and displayed physical print? A picture is a picture at screen resolution. Who is to determine what is good? Who will know (or care) 50 years from now?

As photographers we are familiar with this phenomenon. I'd remind you of film. Technologies changed. Some of us valued parts of the old way that were not carried forward with the new tech. A niche market formed - prices went up, choices went down - but we are keeping the art alive. I believe (and hope) that Nikon will be able to sustain its digital camera share. The announcement of the D6 (and absence of an un-announcement) indicates their intention to do so.

Yay.

* newly wife
 
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I'd remind you of film.
And your reminder reminds me of a question: There are now three main digital camera manufacturers and people are saying that if the market continues to shrink, the market will be too small for all of them. In that context, how large was the film camera market at its zenith and how many major players did it sustain?
 
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My daughter was a successful portrait photographer in our area for several years. She got tired of always having to work on the weekends and evenings (the times most people are available to do portraits) and got a 9-5 job instead so she could be available for her children's activities. She still has her D810, 24-70 f2.8 and 70-200 f2.8 lenses. But she mostly uses her iphone for photos unless she is doing a formal portrait of her family. I think this is the way that most young people are, and if they want a camera they opt for a smaller mirrorless. I am so impressed at the quality of my iphone 11 photos. Even I used it more than I used my Z6 on a trip last week. When I am by myself taking photos I always opt for the best gear available. But when I am with someone else, it's just so much faster using the phone. Sometimes I feel like it is rude making people wait for me while I get out a camera and fuss with the settings. So the phone seems more acceptable socially. The new computational photography tools are amazing. I feel that the camera companies need to integrate some of those tools into their cameras to stay competitive. We saw a lot of cameras in Zion NP last week, but very few large DSLRs. There were a lot of Sony mirrorless cameras. I didn't see anyone else with a Z camera and very few Nikon cameras in general. Mostly Canon, Sony, and cell phones.
 
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My daughter was a successful portrait photographer in our area for several years. She got tired of always having to work on the weekends and evenings (the times most people are available to do portraits) and got a 9-5 job instead so she could be available for her children's activities. She still has her D810, 24-70 f2.8 and 70-200 f2.8 lenses. But she mostly uses her iphone for photos unless she is doing a formal portrait of her family. I think this is the way that most young people are, and if they want a camera they opt for a smaller mirrorless. I am so impressed at the quality of my iphone 11 photos. Even I used it more than I used my Z6 on a trip last week. When I am by myself taking photos I always opt for the best gear available. But when I am with someone else, it's just so much faster using the phone. Sometimes I feel like it is rude making people wait for me while I get out a camera and fuss with the settings. So the phone seems more acceptable socially. The new computational photography tools are amazing. I feel that the camera companies need to integrate some of those tools into their cameras to stay competitive. We saw a lot of cameras in Zion NP last week, but very few large DSLRs. There were a lot of Sony mirrorless cameras. I didn't see anyone else with a Z camera and very few Nikon cameras in general. Mostly Clanon, Sony, and cell phones.
I had never thought of that compelling reason for using a phone to capture photos: speed that begets courtesy.
Add to all this the awkwardness of blending in and participating in social events with a big lump of a camera and lens hanging around your neck and (perhaps) a bag or backpack full of stuff. You feel like staff instead of a guest.

I find myself less and less inclined to take a purpose-built camera along to social events. If this is true of serious photo enthusiasts like me (and Terri, it appears, from her testimony above), then where are the buyers of new ILC's going to come from?
 
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Well, I think this forum is an example that nikon is having an issue. It used to be busy and dynamic and now it is very slow. I post and get one or two comments. There is not much new blood coming in. Even not he FB sites for nikon the comments are slow and interaction is not as strong. I just got my iPhone11 and it takes a pretty good picture in daylight in fact it is usable many places. Soon printed pictures will not go. I have a bunch of them but then I realized that no-one will care after I am gone so why. I will print a few of my favorites big and hang them up so I can enjoy them but I think our hobby is dying. I know they will want us for weddings and events but the pool of people will get smaller and in a way that will allow higher prices for events. BY that time I will be fully retired though. I know my kids do not use the d7000 that they have. In fact I loaned one well gave one to my granddaughter and she returned it a few months later and said she would rather use her phone. I think part of the problem is that people accept crappy pictures as the normal that phones put out and gush over them so people will continue. The DSLR industry is going to shrink to a couple players. When I was younger there were a lot of guys shooting MF now there are only a few and that is now moving to the full frame world. It will be interesting to see what happens but I am glad I am not running Nikon. I fear they missed the boat and will pay for it and they are just realizing it now. That report and comment is devastating that they are restructuring and that Z cameras did not meet sales projection. If you looked back a year ago they were betting on the Z lifting them up and they got one quarter of good news but now as the prices for used sink they have an issue.
 
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Well, I think this forum is an example that nikon is having an issue. It used to be busy and dynamic and now it is very slow. I post and get one or two comments. There is not much new blood coming in. Even not he FB sites for nikon the comments are slow and interaction is not as strong. I just got my iPhone11 and it takes a pretty good picture in daylight in fact it is usable many places. Soon printed pictures will not go. I have a bunch of them but then I realized that no-one will care after I am gone so why. I will print a few of my favorites big and hang them up so I can enjoy them but I think our hobby is dying. I know they will want us for weddings and events but the pool of people will get smaller and in a way that will allow higher prices for events. BY that time I will be fully retired though. I know my kids do not use the d7000 that they have. In fact I loaned one well gave one to my granddaughter and she returned it a few months later and said she would rather use her phone. I think part of the problem is that people accept crappy pictures as the normal that phones put out and gush over them so people will continue. The DSLR industry is going to shrink to a couple players. When I was younger there were a lot of guys shooting MF now there are only a few and that is now moving to the full frame world. It will be interesting to see what happens but I am glad I am not running Nikon. I fear they missed the boat and will pay for it and they are just realizing it now. That report and comment is devastating that they are restructuring and that Z cameras did not meet sales projection. If you looked back a year ago they were betting on the Z lifting them up and they got one quarter of good news but now as the prices for used sink they have an issue.
I think you are right about printed pictures. In my smallish size town, Sam's Club used to be the best place to print photos. They just shut down their lab down.
 
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Well, I think this forum is an example that nikon is having an issue. It used to be busy and dynamic and now it is very slow. I post and get one or two comments. There is not much new blood coming in. Even not he FB sites for nikon the comments are slow and interaction is not as strong. I just got my iPhone11 and it takes a pretty good picture in daylight in fact it is usable many places. Soon printed pictures will not go. I have a bunch of them but then I realized that no-one will care after I am gone so why. I will print a few of my favorites big and hang them up so I can enjoy them but I think our hobby is dying. I know they will want us for weddings and events but the pool of people will get smaller and in a way that will allow higher prices for events. BY that time I will be fully retired though. I know my kids do not use the d7000 that they have. In fact I loaned one well gave one to my granddaughter and she returned it a few months later and said she would rather use her phone. I think part of the problem is that people accept crappy pictures as the normal that phones put out and gush over them so people will continue. The DSLR industry is going to shrink to a couple players. When I was younger there were a lot of guys shooting MF now there are only a few and that is now moving to the full frame world. It will be interesting to see what happens but I am glad I am not running Nikon. I fear they missed the boat and will pay for it and they are just realizing it now. That report and comment is devastating that they are restructuring and that Z cameras did not meet sales projection. If you looked back a year ago they were betting on the Z lifting them up and they got one quarter of good news but now as the prices for used sink they have an issue.
To be fair all fora such as the Cafe are dwindling. Some of the action moved to Facebook but even there it is a diminishing demographic. Instagram and Twitter is more active with younger people. It is just worse here because, well, Nikon users are a fraction of Canon users.

Kinda' like the Beta/VHS wars. VHS won the battle but both lost the war to shiny discs. Now DVD/Bluray is losing to streaming services. (I do not have an HBO subscription so I have been watching Game Of Thrones via Bluray. This option may not be available much longer. Several of the streaming services have opted not to create physical media for their original content. They apparently believe that a big lure for subscribers is their blockbuster original offerings and allowing access, even months after release, via purchase of DVD/Bluray diminishes the power to drive folks to subscribe.)

Mike (Buckley) is right. "Serious" digital cameras are headed the way of film cameras. The open questions (IMO) are who will the survivors be and how fast will the death spiral spin.
 
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I think you are right about printed pictures. In my smallish size town, Sam's Club used to be the best place to print photos. They just shut down their lab down.
Interesting. Recently I had a chat with folks at the Photo Services desk at Costco. They said the photo prints are not a big seller. What keeps them in business are greeting cards, calendars and "gift items" (think coffee mugs, etc).
 
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