Nikon had a terrible sales quarter and is revising forward estimates.

Very interesting article! Of course while Nikon is frantically trying to revamp their line of cameras and lenses they will still need to keep an eye on the rear-view mirror or the side-view mirror.... Sony and Canon aren't going to be sitting around twiddling their thumbs or resting on their laurels during this same time period. Sony in particular will undoubtedly keep making cameras with interesting and innovative new features, sensors which do more than anyone could imagine right now, lenses which fulfill specific needs, etc., etc.
 
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Hogan's introduction: "There's no way...
Thus, I stopped reading.
I decided it was worth reading in spite of that. Much of what Thom proposes sounds quite sensible to me. The much bigger question is this: if the number of cameras that Nikon can realistically sell is only 600,000 per year going forward, is that enough revenue to justify the R&D costs for even 6 products? To put it another way, it's not easy for a big company to shrink into financial success.
 
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There is going to be changes and companies are going to close up shop if they dint take drastic action In the next year or so considering lead times. I read his article ad if it comes to pass it is the wholesale change needed but viability of imaging is an issue unless they do something.
 
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On a similar note this forum used to be a vibrant place with lots of posts. We are the enthusiast he is talking about. The posting has dropped off considerably as the number of active people have as well. Many posts get one reply or none. This could show we have very little new blood buying nikon cameras. I know FB exist and i get wy more comments from photographers there but they are shooting Sony or one of the 4/3 systems. You see it all around that nikon is not growing and has an issue.
 
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On a similar note this forum used to be a vibrant place with lots of posts. We are the enthusiast he is talking about. The posting has dropped off considerably as the number of active people have as well. Many posts get one reply or none. This could show we have very little new blood buying nikon cameras. I know FB exist and i get wy more comments from photographers there but they are shooting Sony or one of the 4/3 systems. You see it all around that nikon is not growing and has an issue.
I would not necessarily draw that conclusion.

I am on FB and have joined several Nikon groups.
There are a lot of new joiners from Gen Y and Z.
I find that these groups are very active.
The decline in posts on forums is a combination of factors, including competition from other social networks and platforms.
Not to mention that there are large communities that use Chinese apps that would not be on the radar of english based search engines.
 
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I would not necessarily draw that conclusion.

I am on FB and have joined several Nikon groups.
There are a lot of new joiners from Gen Y and Z.
I find that these groups are very active.
The decline in posts on forums is a combination of factors, including competition from other social networks and platforms.
Not to mention that there are large communities that use Chinese apps that would not be on the radar of english based search engines.
I am on them too and you are right about being more active then here but they are way less than other groups i am on. The sony alph site is more than twice as many members than the Z sites
 
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The key question that Nikon has to answer in the marketplace is, "Why should I buy a Nikon over a Sony?" Matt Irwin, in this rather long video, compares the Z7 to the A7R3 in real world terms:


What he states as he sums up is both profound and accurate:
  • It's hard to go wrong choosing between these two competing high resolution bodies
  • There are a few things the Sony does a little better than the Nikon (notably, low light AF, eye detection)
  • There are a few things the Nikon does a little better than the Sony
But,
  • There are some built-in features the Nikon has that the Sony doesn't have at all (such as weather sealing, high resolution EVF, top LCD screen)
I think Nikon is a few tweaks away from a mirrorless body that leads the industry in every way. They just need to transition quickly from a good first effort to their next iteration. Hopefully in time to keep or even capture back some market share.
 
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After shooting nikon for more than 40 years, I made a large move to sony a7riv. This body is an improvement over the riii, and addresses issues at least some weather sealing, etc. A big learning curve for sure. The sony is a computer that takes pictures. Everything is customizable. Overwhelming at first, but then wow! I have 3 focus buttons set on for back button focus. One is the regular focus, a second automatically activates eye tracking and a 3rd allows focus peaking with manual adjustment. This alone changes the way I shoot. I wish my nikon could do that.
The nikon is a camera that happens to be digital. It does some things better. Focus on birds in flight- at least so far- nikon wins hands down. Focus stacking on my d850, sony can't do that. The Nikon feels better in my hands, but may be as I know it well.
The scary part to me is, as an old fart retired person that has shot nikon forever- after 6 weeks I grab the sony kit when I am going out.
I do not see how nikon comes out of these fights unscarred.
The sony lens lineup for mirrorless is pretty well rounded. I thought nikon was a lens manufacturer, how did it let a company that makes tv's and vcr's better it in the new upcoming mirrorless market? But it did.
Nikon's back is up against the wall. In my opinion, it has one more chance to hit a mirrorless homerun. It needs a camera that betters the a7riv and the a9ii- wrapped into one. Then it needs to give a roadmap of lenses. It hit a homerun with the d850. I truly hope it can do it again.
Gary
 
The key question that Nikon has to answer in the marketplace is, "Why should I buy a Nikon over a Sony?" Matt Irwin, in this rather long video, compares the Z7 to the A7R3 in real world terms:


What he states as he sums up is both profound and accurate:
  • It's hard to go wrong choosing between these two competing high resolution bodies
  • There are a few things the Sony does a little better than the Nikon (notably, low light AF, eye detection)
  • There are a few things the Nikon does a little better than the Sony
But,
  • There are some built-in features the Nikon has that the Sony doesn't have at all (such as weather sealing, high resolution EVF, top LCD screen)
I think Nikon is a few tweaks away from a mirrorless body that leads the industry in every way. They just need to transition quickly from a good first effort to their next iteration. Hopefully in time to keep or even capture back some market share.

One significant situation for me is lenses. If Nikon's new Z series does not offer the lens(es) that I am most interested in, and another manufacturer does, why would I tinker around with using the FTZ adapter with a Z series camera just so I could continue to use my older Nikon lenses? Each person making a decision about what to buy in his or her next major camera and/or lens purchase takes a number of factors into consideration. I already know that I do not want to purchase another DSLR. The next camera body is going to be a mirrorless one. I'm already familiar with Sony, having used their NEX-7, a couple of RX100s and the RX10 m4 over the past several years. Over the past year or so I've been watching and noting people's comments and viewing their images shot with the new Nikon Z cameras and lenses, and seeing some excellent results. I know that there are workarounds for the unavailability of any macro lenses in the Z series, but I am not so sure that I would want to compromise. Eventually I'll free myself of this "analysis paralysis" and actually buy something!
 
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One significant situation for me is lenses. If Nikon's new Z series does not offer the lens(es) that I am most interested in, and another manufacturer does, why would I tinker around with using the FTZ adapter with a Z series camera just so I could continue to use my older Nikon lenses?
Thom's suggestion is for Nikon to quit the DX line since it was never really populated as it should have been, That would, hopefully free them up (force them) to concentrate on the Z mount (both S and non-S).
 
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