Petalpixel Presents Grim Article on Nikon and its Future

[Clix Pix]

Really a rather upsetting and disturbing article:

https://petapixel.com/2020/11/23/nikon-in-dire-straits-as-its-slump-is-particularly-untimely-report/

 

[Phil K]

It's sad.

Nikon continues to produce very good products in dSLR and mirrorless systems, but their business model is a bit conservative comparing to competitors. Series 1 was actually a good system but they failed to develop it to attract more users, and the action cameras are disastrous.

 

[gchappel]

It is sad. I have shoot nikon for almost 50 years, yet they lost me to sony last year. For medical vision issues I wanted to move to mirrorless. The nikon system was at that time, not yet mature. The lens roadmap was limited. Sony had a system and lenses that gave me what I wanted. I will admit nikon has come a long way in mirrorless since I switched, but too late.
Cameras are becoming more and more like small computers. Nikon’s history of software development and seamless communication with other devices is pretty dismal. They need to change. I suspect they are only a couple of mistakes away from even bigger problems. The clock is ticking.
Gary

 

[FredAzinger]

It's click-bait speculation, nothing more......
The sky has been falling for a long time.

 

[Mike Buckley]

PetaPixel article: "its precision machinery business – where it has traditionally had the largest sales figures – is down 98% from the previous year."
Nikon Investor Relations: "revenue for the Precision Equipment Business decreased by 12.7% year on year" https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/finance/performance/index.htm

PetaPixel article: "Nikon is reportedly in 'dire straits'"
Pop Quiz: How many years in the last five years did Nikon post a loss? (If you don't know the answer, use the link displayed above.)

 

[NCV]

I recently read a piece by Tom Hogan who is often critical of Nikon. He was a bit more optimistic and said that these "Nikon is dying stories" are put out by people who do not know how to read a financial report.

Nikon has been profitable up to now I believe. Olympus who's fate is often compared to Nikon was a loss maker for the last 10 years and had a tiny market share.

The downside of the Internet is that misinformation is easier to find than the truth.

 

[Phil K]

PetaPixel article: "its precision machinery business – where it has traditionally had the largest sales figures – is down 98% from the previous year."
Nikon Investor Relations: "revenue for the Precision Equipment Business decreased by 12.7% year on year" https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/finance/performance/index.htm

PetaPixel article: "Nikon is reportedly in 'dire straits'"
Pop Quiz: How many years in the last five years did Nikon post a loss? (If you don't know the answer, use the link displayed above.)

12.7% was the 3/2020 report. The 98% is the projected loss of 2020-2021 comparing to 2019-2020.

From the Japanese report:
他方、事業別売り上げで最大となる精機事業にも暗雲が漂う。2021年3月期の営業利益見通しは前年比約98％減の10億円。液晶露光装置は中期的に好調が見込めるものの、半導体露光装置の販売台数は前年比18台減の27台にとどまる見通しだ。今後、半導体検査装置など収益源の多様化などを図る方針だが、先行きは不透明だ。

Google translate:
On the other hand, there is a dark cloud in the precision machinery business, which has the largest sales by business. The operating income forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2021 is 1 billion yen, down about 98% from the previous year. Although LCD exposure equipment is expected to perform well in the medium term, sales of semiconductor exposure equipment are expected to decrease by 18 from the previous year to 27 units. The policy is to diversify revenue sources such as semiconductor inspection equipment in the future, but the future is uncertain.

 

[Mike Buckley]

PetaPixel article: "its precision machinery business – where it has traditionally had the largest sales figures – is down 98% from the previous year."
Nikon Investor Relations: "revenue for the Precision Equipment Business decreased by 12.7% year on year" https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/finance/performance/index.htm

12.7% was the 3/2020 report. The 98% is the projected loss of 2020-2021 comparing to 2019-2020.

That's helpful. Thanks! It also proves that the article was flat out wrong. The article doesn't say the business is expected to be down 98%; it says the business is down 98% from the previous year, which would be FY2019.

If it meant to say that the business in the most recent quarter is down 98% from the previous year, it should have said that. But it didn't. I didn't look up the financials to determine if that would be an accurate statement.

 

[Mike Buckley]

Nikon has been profitable up to now I believe.

To clarify that, each of the last five fiscal years was profitable, though the most recent one was barely profitable. Hardly the stuff of a company in "dire straits" in my mind.

 

[FredAzinger]

There is trouble ahead, no doubt.
Nikon's Lithography department didn't transition to EUV which is the future.

 

[Clix Pix]

I made the switch last year from Nikon, which I had used for many, many years, to Sony. Why? In a word: lenses. I was ready to move to full-frame mirrorless and I knew what I wanted, starting with a macro lens, and, oops, Nikon at that point didn't even have a macro listed on its "roadmap," much less one I could pluck off the shelf at a store or order online. Ehhhh? Nikon's answer to that: "just put one of your old lenses on our FTZ adapter." Uh, no thanks. Why should I sit around waiting for Nikon to cough up a native macro lens and a long lens or two when I could go to the camera shop and immediately purchase exactly what I wanted when I wanted it? There were other factors, too, which entered into the decision, but that was a major one. So, I went to the store and traded my Nikon gear, coming home with not only a new body but two -- count 'em, two! -- macro lenses plus a third lens. About a month and a half later I returned to the store and purchased a long zoom (200-600, the Bazooka), and then in the spring purchased another long lens (100-400). Last I looked, people who are using Nikon's Z system are still waiting for the one native macro lens and a long lens.....oh, but they're on the "road map!"

 

[Mike Buckley]

By the way, the article explains that the Precision Equipment Business is the company's largest segment. While that's true, it was only slightly larger than the consumer cameras segment last fiscal year. Moreover, it has traditionally been smaller than the camera segment and is only larger now because the camera segment has decreased in size over the last five years. For me, the more important issue is that the revenue in camera sales has been decreasing, not that the Precision Equipment Business is the largest segment and is expected to take an unusually large hit during the current fiscal year because of effects of the pandemic.