I decided to take the offer because this just has to end somewhere. It's annoying, but not terrible. Based on their response, it will be at least a week and possibly longer until I have the replacement D850. Had I known back in December, I might have bought a new one on sale. What really bothers me the most is a few drops of rain killed a weather sealed camera.
Nikon said the estimate would be updated tomorrow with a new price and I will have to approve it, just like the original estimate. Then they ship after couple of days unless they are out of stock which adds another 2 weeks. It's hard to understand how slowly they move.
APS turned around my 24-120 in a day.