Z 90: Future replacement for the D500?

[acnomad]

First of all: there is no such rumor - just my hopes and overactive imagination and the following factors:

1. Assumption: The upcoming Z 9 will be positioned at a price point similar to flagship bodies such as the D5, D6, Sony A9, and modest used automobiles
2. Fact: The D500 was the crop sensor solution that brought D5 technology to a price point accessible to a broader market.
3. Assumption: The Z 9 will AF with the speed, precision, and reliability to satisfy D5/D6 users with Eye AF that improves upon existing Z 6 II and Z 7 II capabilities.
4. Fact: While not as good as the D5 (which I don't own), the D500 consistently outperforms the Z bodies in AF
5. Assumption: Nikon, if they follow their existing playbook, will release a crop sensor version of the Z 9 (presumably called the Z 90) not too long after the Z 9.

Reasonable, or just wishful thinking?

 

[drr1531]

We can all dream, Andy. One of the few free things about photography. Or life for that matter

 

[gryphon1911]

It sounds like a reasonable, and if it is anywhere close, a proposition that I will gladly buy into. Literally.

 

[Jonathan F/2]

I think APS-C is still a viable cash cow for these companies. There's a reason Sony has sold a boatload of A6xxx bodies, Fuji is still going strong with APS-C and Canon hasn't even axed their M system yet.

Though as a Sony owner, the siren song of the compact FF A7C is calling! ?

 

[acnomad]

I think APS-C is still a viable cash cow for these companies.

Definitely true. But the one thing that will attract me to the hypothetical Z 90 is not the improved effective FL or smaller form factor, but rather “pro-like” AF performance at a “prosumer” price.

 

[Jonathan F/2]

Definitely true. But the one thing that will attract me to the hypothetical Z 90 is not the improved effective FL or smaller form factor, but rather “pro-like” AF performance at a “prosumer” price.

Nikon is fairly predictable in this regards throughout the years. I totally see them making a high performance APS-C body priced in a higher category than the Z5, but right below the Z6. This will also give Nikon a mirrorless body that goes toe-to-toe with the Sony A6600. Nikon will make FX users who want faster performance go either Z9 or perhaps some new variation of the Z7 that will inherit partial guts of the Z9 making it closer to a true mirrorless D850 and a high res competitor to the Sony A1. I think the oddball will be how Sony responds with the A7 mk.4, which might make Nikon adjust their strategy.

Nikon really now has to consider not just Canon, but also Sony as a direct competitor. Though I hope they still have a proper R&D budget with dwindling sales.

 

[acnomad]

Nikon is fairly predictable in this regards throughout the years.

Based on DSLRs (regular text), and current or announced mirrorless (underlined), here are my predictions (bold):

D6xx -> Z 5 (crop version Z 50)
D7xx (crop version D7xxx) -> Z 6 (crop version = Z 60: a Z 50 with EVF)
D8xx (no crop version) -> Z 7 (crop version = none)

D3 (crop version D300)
D4 (no crop version)
D5 (crop version D500)
D6 (no crop version) -> Z 9 (crop version = Z 90)

how Sony responds with the A7 mk.4, which might make Nikon adjust their strategy.

One more prediction:
Z 8: to compete with A7 mk4 in performance and price

 

[ITEPfoto]

I loved my D500, absolute beast, but if I recall, they didn’t sell like the D300s. Hence I doubt that Nikon will put out a zinger crop-sensor mirrorless. In Nikon’s current business situation less is more on body choices - they must have warehouses full of point & shoots and other failed products. The priority should focus (ouch) on best-of-class class AF in FF.
I find that the cropped Z7 fits my needs (albeit not quite up to D500 performance yet) and the advantages offered by mirrorless is leaving the APS cameras looking like the equivalent of P7800 size sensors of yore. Sorry, a bit harsh there, but who would have predicted that the phone in your pocket would outperform our old holy grails.

 

[acnomad]

I loved my D500, absolute beast, but if I recall, they didn’t sell like the D300s. Hence I doubt that Nikon will put out a zinger crop-sensor mirrorless.

Good point. I'm hoping the climate is different now with a relatively complete line of mirrorless bodies and lenses taking shape. I doubt Nikon will stop at a single APS-C mirrorless body in the Z 50. Since the price point of the Z 9 will (presumably) be out of reach for most who don't shoot action professionally, I think a crop body that packs more punch than the Z 50 has to be in the works.

 

[JLH]

I would not want to try to guess what Nikon will do next. Its a tough time to be in this business. I really like my Z50, even more so since I got the Canon EF adapter so I can put my L series glass on it. But, I am NOT letting go of my D500 any time soon. It has been a work horse and for the type of photography I do its the best for me. The Z50 has much for me to like but for what I mostly do it pales next to the D500. I have to wonder about how much market there is for a more advance and powerful DX type mirrorless camera in Nikon's line up, especially with them under the financial stress they are currently under.

 

[gryphon1911]

There is plenty of market out there for wildlife and sports photographers. My workhorse for sports since it was released have been the D300 and the D500. I know a lot of sports and wildlife shooters that are the same.

 

[MNglass]

There is plenty of market out there for wildlife and sports photographers. My workhorse for sports since it was released have been the D300 and the D500. I know a lot of sports and wildlife shooters that are the same.

I keep a D500 for our (sparse and sporadic) birding outings; otherwise it is either the Z6 or Z7. I think you are right about the market out there but I'm not going to hold my breath given the roadmap.

 

[gryphon1911]

I keep a D500 for our (sparse and sporadic) birding outings; otherwise it is either the Z6 or Z7. I think you are right about the market out there but I'm not going to hold my breath given the roadmap.

ive not seen anyone outside the photo forums complain about the lack of options for APS-C. Most want the most reach they can get, so having the 70-200 be a 300 FOV is a bonus and not a hindrance for most.

All the primes are there for the bulk of the FOVs.

 

[06Honda]

I have been tryng to buy a new D500 here in Canada and it seems it is not available anywhere. One camera store thinks it may be already discontinued but an offical announcement from Nikon has not been made.

 

[JLH]

B&H Photo seems to have some in stock....

 

[06Honda]

I checked the site you mentioned and they have a notice indicating the do not ship to Canada for the Nikon D500.

 

[Pa]

Pursuant to the original topic, in Thom Hogan's writings today he says:

Nikon still has two large groups of prosumer photographers that are unconvinced: the D500 and D850 users. The D500 is to this day the best APS-C (DX) camera you can buy, and by a fairly wide margin. The D850 is still one of the best three or four all-around cameras you can buy, and the least expensive of that bunch, as well.

So Nikon still has work to do. The Z9 kept the pros in Nikon gear, but there's still risk at the prosumer level. Thus, I'm waiting to see what "just in time" solution Nikon will come up with next in the Z System.

 

[Tim Robinson]

Pursuant to the original topic, in Thom Hogan's writings today he says:

Nikon still has two large groups of prosumer photographers that are unconvinced: the D500 and D850 users. The D500 is to this day the best APS-C (DX) camera you can buy, and by a fairly wide margin. The D850 is still one of the best three or four all-around cameras you can buy, and the least expensive of that bunch, as well.

So Nikon still has work to do. The Z9 kept the pros in Nikon gear, but there's still risk at the prosumer level. Thus, I'm waiting to see what "just in time" solution Nikon will come up with next in the Z System.

Not that I'm in the switching category in terms of brands - I'm in the category of not "all in" on mirrorless because I own both of those bodies as well...show me an APS-C body (ala the D5/D500) that has scaled down z9 features and performs as well as the Z6 in low light and I'll be all in. Maybe...

 

[Pa]

... and performs as well as the Z6 in low light ....

You can't get that in APSC format without greatly reduced pixel count.

 

[Tim Robinson]

You can't get that in APSC format without greatly reduced pixel count.

Yeah…I should have said has “acceptable low light performance” …